Consider the following time series data:
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
Using the naïve method ( most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:
a. Mean absolute error
b. Mean squared error
c. Mean absolute percentage error
d. What is the forecast for week 7?
For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.
A. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
B. Compare a three- month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing fore-cast for a 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy?
C. What is the forecast for next month?